UK greenhouse gas emissions fall 8.7%
Total UK emissions plummet as recession lowers electricity and fuel use
A dramatic fall in greenhouse gas emissions following the recession has brought the UK's climate change targets for the next five years within easy reach, taking the pressure off government and business to comply.
Government estimates released on Tuesday showed greenhouse gas emissions fell by 8.7% from 2008 to 2009, the biggest drop since records began in 1990. Carbon dioxide levels plunged 9.8%, a fall only matched in 1980, in records extending to 1970.
The unexpectedly deep slump in emissions mirrors the fall in industrial output in the recession, with high-emitting sectors including construction and transport hit particularly hard.
But it also means that government-set climate change targets of cutting emissions by 35% by 2020, compared with 1990 levels, now look much easier to meet. The UK has already met the targets for 2016, provided emissions stay at 2009 levels.
This raises the prospect that businesses could effectively take an "emissions holiday", absolving them from the need to invest in energy efficiency and renewable power for several years. Green experts warn that such inactivity would make it much more expensive to achieve the further steep falls in the UK's emissions needed after 2020.
Chris Huhne, the Liberal Democrat energy and climate change secretary, said ministers were keeping up the pressure: "Yes, emissions were down in 2009 but so was the economy so this is no time for back-slapping. A low-carbon approach has to be a vital part of kick-starting and future-proofing our economy, getting us off the oil hook and onto long-term green growth. That's why we're wasting no time in reforming the electricity market, setting up the green investment bank, and legislating for the green! deal."< /p>
A related concern is that if businesses and government fail to invest soon in emissions-cutting technology, such as renewable energy, then emissions could quickly bounce back to their pre-recession levels as the economic recovery picks up pace.
Environmental campaigners said early indications showed last year's figures, preliminary estimates for which will be published in March, were higher than 2009. Mike Childs, head of climate at Friends of the Earth, said: "The recession may have led to a fall in UK greenhouse gases in 2009, but our economy remains heavily addicted to fossil fuels, and early estimates suggest that emissions grew again last year."
He said the energy bill currently in parliament was a "golden opportunity" to ensure emissions continued to fall as the economy improved. "The bill must include new legislation to stop our homes leaking heat, boost renewable energy and require local councils to play their part in tackling climate change. We must build a clean, low-carbon economy out of the rubble of the old to create a safe and prosperous future."
The government's estimate shows slightly steeper falls for 2008 than that produced by the US Energy Information Administration, reported by the Guardian on Monday. Those estimates, which measure only carbon dioxide from fuel use, such as electricity generation and transport, suggested that global emissions held steady through the recession despite a plunge in industrialised countries, including the US, Japan and the European Union. Rapid growth in greenhouse gas output from China and a handful of other emerging economies, including India, was enough to offset the fall from the traditional big emitters, keeping emissions for 2009 level with the previous year.
Scientists say emissions must peak arou! nd 2015 for the world to avoid dangerous climate change.
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