Politics blog + PMQs live
Rolling coverage of all the day's political developments including Jack Straw at the final hearing of the Iraq war inquiry and live coverage of prime minister's questions
12.36pm: Here's a lunchtime summary.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that George Osborne should rule out a giveaway budget in March. "Having set out his fiscal consolidation plan, it is important that chancellor George Osborne resist the temptation to engage in any significant net giveaway in the budget," it said. A Conservative party spokesman said this was was a rebuke to Labour, which has called for the government's tax increases and spending cuts to be relaxed.
Theresa May, the home secretary, has announced that more than 18m will be spent over the next two years tackling knife crime and gang culture. May said the funding was being made available "on the back of" a report into knife crime, published today, by former EastEnders actor Brooke Kinsella, whose brother, Ben, was stabbed to death at the age of 16 three years ago.
The Iraq inquiry has been taking evidence from its last witness. Jack Straw told the hearing that he genuinely believed that war could be averted after the UN security council passed resolution 1441. "I might be accused of naivety but I believe that because of the force of 1441 we'd be able to resolve this peacfully, so the issue of a second resolution would not arise," he said.
Members of the shadow cabinet have been told not to single out the News of the World for attack when making comments on the phone-hacking affair. As Polly Curtis reports, this message has gone out in an email! forward ed on behalf of Ed Miliband's director of strategy, Tom Baldwin, to all shadow cabinet teams. "We must guard against anything which appears to be attacking a particular newspaper group out of spite," it says.
I'm finishing now for the day. My collegue Helene Mulholland will be taking over for the afternoon.
12.30pm: Labour's Barry Sheerman asks about the privatisation of woodlands.
Cameron says the last government sold of forests with no guarantees of access. He is listening to all of the arguments being put - a hint that concessions might be coming, perhaps? - but he thinks it is wrong to have the Forestry Commission regulating forests and owning them. "This is worth looking at," he says.
(He is being quite equivocal about this proposals. It does sound as if Downing Street is getting ready to back down over this.)
12.28pm: Labour's Anas Sarwar asks if Cameron has a plan A for the economy, let alone a plan B.
Cameron says Labour does not have a plan for the economy, but the government does.
12.27pm: Labour's Thomas Docherty asks Cameron for an assurance that funding into the causes of stillbirths will not be cut. Cameron says NHS funding will not be cut. He will get back to Docherty with information about stillbirth research.
12.26pm: Cameron says Frank Field's report on poverty is "excellent". The government will help poor children with its pupil premium, he says.
12.25pm: Labour's Huw Irranca-Davies asks about a parachute factory in his constituency not getting the chance to compete for an MoD contract. Cameron says he wants to do everything to allow British companies to compete.
12.22pm: Zac Goldsmith, a Conservative, asks if Cameron will insist on the end of "fish discards" (fish being thrown back into the sea) as a condition of Britain continuing support for the common fisheries policy. Cameron says he will press for this to be abandoned.
12.21pm: Cameron says Ed Balls said at the weekend that there was no structural deficit before th! e recess ion. But the Institute for Fiscal Studies says there was a structural deficit, Cameron says. He accuses Balls of "deficit denial".
12.20pm: Labour's Ann Clwyd asks about the closure of a Remploy plant in her constituency. Cameron says he thinks the plan for Remploy's future was drawn up by Labour.
12.20pm: Asked if he agrees that parents have an obligation to make sure their children learn English, Cameron says he agrees. The government will toughen the rules on immigrants having to learn English.
12.19pm: Labour's Ronnie Campbell asks how Cameron can justify building up a 50bn election war chest. (Not sure where he's got that figure from.) Cameron says Labour is to blame for the cuts the government is going to have to make.
12.18pm: Cameron says the decisions of GPs and patients will decide what happens under the government's NHS reforms.
12.16pm: Elfyn Llwyd, the Plaid Cymru MP, says he is dismayed RBS are handing out bonuses. Will Cameron rule out giving these bankers any honours?
Cameron points out that Llwyd has just become a privy counsellor. He says the discussions he is having with the banks will lead to more lending and smaller bonuses.
12.15pm: Asked about a report that Nick Clegg has written to him saying councils should have the right to raise fuel duty, Clegg declines to deny this. He and Clegg write to each other all the time, he says. They both want to see councils become better resourced and more independent.
12.14pm: Cameron says the Pfizer decision to close its Viagra factory is "bad news". It is a "state of the art" site. The government will do what it can to make the best of what is "a depressing piece of news".
12.13pm: Cameron says the government will soon be presenting a paper on special educational needs. He knows how parents have to fight for what they need. The government wants to make it easier for them, he says.
12.12pm: Snap verdict: Politicians sometime agree. It makes for dreadful copy, but it happ! ens more often than you think and it's sometimes useful to be reminded of this.
12.10pm: Miliband says he senses that people are not used to this kind of PMQs. He says he will support Cameron in his Afghan strategy.
Cameron says people prefer a bun fight. But sometimes it is more important to have a serious discussion. He knows that this is important to the troops.
It is important to engage with the Pakistanis, Cameron says. It is also important to engage with the insurgents. But they have to give up violence.
12.07pm: Ed Miliband turns to Afghanistan. Can Cameron provide an assessment of the progress of the mission in Afghanistan.
Cameron says there is progress in Helmand. But it is important to look at other areas of the country too. The Afghan army is on target for meeting its goals for getting more troops trained. Cameron says the 2015 deadline for troops not being involved in fighting is "achievable".
Miliband says having a timetable means it is important to have a political settlement. Does that involve reaching out to the insurgency?
Cameron says a timetable helps focus the minds of the Afghans. Reaching out is also important.
12.06pm: Miliband says the people of Egypt are demanding basic things, like jobs. Isn't it clear that the best route to stability is through democracy.
Yes, says Cameron. There should be moves towards "greater democracy". That does not jsut mean elections. It means "building blocks" like a free judiciary.
12.02pm: Ed Miliband starts with his own tribute to the dead solider. He says he saw the bravery of British troops when he visited Afghanistan at the weekend.
He asks about Egypt. What arrangements are being made to bring Britons back?
Cameron says there are around 30,000 Britions in the Red Sea area. There are about 3,000 Britons in Cairo and 300 in Alexandria. There are good commercial flights operting. And the government has sent a plane. The UK was the first country to put a consular team at the airport.
Mil iband says everyone has been moved by the images seen over recent days. Does Cameron agree with Obama that the transition to democracy must start now.
Cameron says he does take that view.
You can't watch the scenes in Cairo without finding them incredibly moving.
President Mubarak says he is going. "We respect that," Cameron says. But the transition to democracy must start now.
12.00pm: Bob Russell, a Lib Dem MP, asks about charities. Is Cameron worried that councils are using the "perceived cuts" as an excuse to take money from charities?
Cameron says he shares Russell's concern. The health budget is not being cut, he says. There are "reductions in spending" in local government. But he would urge councils to look at how they can cut their adminstration budgets.
12.00pm: Cameron starts with a tribute to a soldier killed in Afghanistan last week.
11.57am: David Cameron is coming into the chamber now.
11.40am: PMQs is coming up soon. Ed Miliband may well ask about the economy (see 10am) but there's also a very strong chance that he will ask about the government's plans to sell off parts of the Forestry Commission estate. This has not registered with the newspapers or the broadcaster as a mammoth story yet, but MPs are apparently getting huge numbers of letters and emails about it. Labour is holding a debate on the issue later this afternoon and it has set out the case against the government's plans in its motion.
That this House believes that the Government's intention in the Public Bodies Bill to sell off up to 100 per cent. of England's public forestry estate is fundamentally unsound; notes that over 225,000 people have signed a petition against such a sell-off; recognises the valuable role that the Forestry Commission and England's forests have made to increasing woodland biodiversity and public access, with 40 million visits a year; further recognises that the total subsidy to the Forestry Commission has reduced ! from 35 per cent. of income in 2003-04 to 14 per cent. of income in 2010-11; further notes that the value of the ecosystems services provided by England's public forest estate is estimated to be 680 million a year; notes that the value of such services could increase substantially in the future through the transition to a low carbon economy as a carbon market emerges; notes that the public forest estate has been retained in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland; and calls on the Government to rethink its decision on the sale of England's public forest estate in order to protect it for future generations.
This government does not always table amendments to opposition day debate motions. But ministers have tabled one this time (perhaps because they recognise that they have not done a particularly good job so far explaining why the sell-off is a good idea). Here's the text of the government amendment, which explains the government's case.
Leave out from 'House' to end and add 'deplores the actions of the previous administration in selling off 25,000 acres of public forestry estate with wholly inadequate protections; notes that the previous administration sought to go even further in finding ways to exploit the forestry estate for commercial gain as recently as 2009; welcomes the consultation proposals to guarantee the future protection of heritage forests by offering them charitable trust status; supports the consultation proposals for robust access and public benefit conditions that will be put in place through lease conditions, including access rights for cyclists and horse-riders; believes the leasehold conditions regarding biodiversity and wildlife conservation will safeguard significant important environmental benefits; sees these proposals as important in resolving the conflict of interest whereby the Forestry Commission is the regulator of the timber sector whilst being the largest operator in the England timber market; considers that debate on the future of the forest est! ate ough t to be conducted on the basis of the facts of the Government's proposals; and believes that under these proposals people will continue to enjoy the access and benefits they currently have from the woodlands of England.'.
11.35am: Several witnesses have told the Iraq inquiry recently that Tony Blair did not consult his cabinet properly about his plans to go to war in Iraq. But Straw has just told the inquiry that cabinet ministers would have to be "deaf, dumb and blind" not to know what was being planned. In particular, Straw said he was "incredulous" when he heard Sir Stephen Wall, Blair's Europe adviser, tell the inquiry recently that cabinet mininsters were being kept in the dark.
11.23am: Back at the Iraq inquiry, Straw says some members of the US administration had a "gleam in the eye" when it came to Iraq. In other words, they were set on war. But not President Bush, says Straw.
My experience of President Bush was that, in the end, when faced with decisions, he was much more thoughtful than he was often credited for.
11.21am: Jim Devine, the former Labour MP, has pleaded not guilty to fiddling his expenses, Sky's Rachel Younger reports on Twitter from Southwark Crown Court.,
11.11am: The full details of the mental health announcement (see 9.18am and 9.29am) are now on the Department of Health's website.
11.05am: Ministers who leak government plans before formally announcing them in parliament could face censure by MPs under plans proposed by the Commons procedure committee. My colleague Polly Curtis has the full details. She says ministers wanted the rules to be changed so that government announcements could be made on the Today program! me.
< blockquote>The Commons procedure committee has rejected proposals put forward by the government to be allowed to announce important new policies as early as 7am in the morning, in order to dominate the morning bulletins, instead of waiting until 9.30am to make a statement in the house, arguing that parliament should be at the "centre" of the national debate.
The leader of the house, Sir George Young, had argued that plans should be published earlier to allow the government to "access the media", but MPs told the inquiry that it was "galling" to hear announcements on the BBC's Today programme that should be made to MPs in the Commons, giving primacy to parliamentary scrutiny of the plans.
10.58am: Tom Baldwin's campaign to rebrand the coalition as the "Conservative-led government" seems to be paying off. In his capacity as Ed Miliband's new communciations director, Baldwin wrote to the BBC last month urging it to use the term. The BBC doesn't seem to have taken much notice. But the Conservative party is using Baldwin language. As Sam Macrory reports at ePolitix.com, the party used the phrase in a press release yesterday.
10.27am: PoliticsHome has been running a good live blog of the Iraq inquiry hearing. I have not heard a great news line yet, but some of the exchanges have been quite spiky. Here are some of the points that have come up.
Straw was asked about a comment in Chris Mullin's diaries. After the war Mullin quoted Straw as saying: "One thing I learned from Iraq was that once you start the process rolling, it's very difficult to stop." Straw said this did not mean that he thought the ball should not have started rolling in relation to ! Iraq in the first place.
In dealing with Iran, a process of strong diplomacy backed by non-coercive sanctions is a sensible one. I happen to believe a process of coercive action with military action is not a sensible one. I was anxious to put my line in the sand on that one. The idea of a nuclear strike on Iran was - and - remains "nuts".
Straw said that he and Tony Blair initially had "a different perspective". But Straw "ended up at the same point at the prime minister".
He said he had "profound objections" to the way President Bush linked Iran with Iraq and North Korea in his "axis of evil" speech. "That undermined the reformist president's efforts to reach out to the West," Straw said.
You can follow the proceedings on Twitter by following PoliticsHome's Paul Waugh or Sky's Glen Oglaza who are both posting regular updates.
10.00am: The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just published its green budget forecast. It contains material helpful to Labour and the government, and I expect we'll hear more about it at PMQs. A summary is on the IFS website. Here are the main points.
The IFS says George Osborne should have a plan B. It says the economy might not grow as quickly as the government expects and it says the cuts might be harder to deliver than expected.
Overall, with such large downside risks to the public finances, having alternative plans to hand could prove useful. The government should review its spending settlements in a couple of years' time in light of any changes to the economic and fiscal outlook, or particular difficulties faced by departments in delivering spending cuts that are palatable to the government and the wider public.
But it says that it would be a mistake for Osborne to change his plans in next month's budget. (! Labour i sn't just urging the government to prepare a plan B; it is urging Osborne to adopt one now.) The IFS says that going on a spending spree now would be a mistake.
While last week's growth figures were disappointing, this year's IFS green budget highlights that any fiscal loosening aimed at helping the economy could be ineffective if it prompts an offsetting monetary tightening, and risks undermining investor confidence that the remainder of the fiscal consolidation plan, in which the Chancellor has set such store, will be delivered.
The IFS says that if the economy grows in line with its "central" expectations, Osborne will not meet his goal of balancing the budget by the end of this parliament.
Under this forecast for the economy, we project a deficit on the cyclically-adjusted current budget of 0.4% of national income in 201516, which would mean that current policy would not be consistent with the Chancellor's fiscal mandate.
It says the "fair fuel stabiliser" idea being considered by the Treasury probably would not work.
A 'fair fuel stabiliser' would help stabilise household finances, but official estimates suggest that it would make the public finances more uncertain. It would also be very difficult to implement in practice.
It says that 750,000 people will become higher-rate taxpayers in April and that a further 850,000 will become higher-rate taxpayers by 2015-16 if the government achieves its goal of raising the income tax allowance to 10,000.
9.56am: Jack Straw has been getting a hard time at the Iraq inquiry at the moment. Sir Roderic Lyne wanted to know why he wrote "very perceptive" on an MI6 document raising the possibility of Britain adopting regime change as a policy towards Iraq. Straw became defensive, saying that he had not been told this would come up and that he would have read the paper and scribbled on it "la! te at ni ght". The fact that he said it was "perceptive" did not mean he was endorsing it, he said. Straw said it was well known that he opposed regime change as policy, not least because it was illegal.
9.51am: Theresa May, the home secretary, has said the government will spend 18m over the next two years on tackling crime involving knives, guns and gangs. Here's an extract from the Press Association story about this.
The funding announcement comes after former EastEnders star Brooke Kinsella, whose 16-year-old brother Ben was stabbed to death three years ago, highlighted the best ways to combat the issue.
The 27-year-old actress, who was appointed a government adviser on the issue last year, called for anti-knife crime presentations for schools and more work with young children to stop them getting involved.
May said: "Brooke Kinsella has done a great job in highlighting what works and what could work better in trying to achieve that.
"Off the back of Brooke's recommendations, we will invest money into changing attitudes and behaviour, alongside being tough on those who persist in being involved in senseless crimes."
In her report, Kinsella called for more anti-knife projects in schools, more data-sharing between police, schools and other agencies and a scheme to deal with the "fear and fashion" factor of knives.
9.39am: The Jack Straw hearing has just started. I won't be covering it all, because I will be looking at other stories too this morning, but I will be monitoring it.
9.32am: The Iraq inquiry has just posted a 28-page witness statement from Jack Straw on its website, as well as 10 declassified documents. I'll take a look at them soon.
9.29am: As I thought, Alastair Campbell is pleased with Nick Clegg this morning. (See 9.18am.) At least, reasonably pleased. Campbell is still worried about the impact of the cuts. But he has just posted this on his blog.
If Nick Clegg is seeking to become the voice of the mentally ill within government, then he deserves support.
9.18am: Nick Clegg has given at least three interviews this morning to publicise the government's new mental health strategy. The Press Association and PoliticsHome have been monitoring. Here are the main points.
He said 70,000 people could get back into work as a result of a 400m initiative to improve mental health services. The government wants to give mental health the same priority that physical health gets.
This is 400m. It's new money, it's extra money, and it's money that could lead to the 1.2m people that don't have access, having access to talking therapies. Evidence suggests that would mean 70,000 people going back into work, who presently can't work because of their mental health conditions ...For far too long frankly there has been a stigma attached to mental health issues which has meant it's going to be brushed under the carpet. I don't think any responsible Government can ignore something which affects one in four people in this country. And I think for too long people have spoken warm words for the needs of mental health and actually it still ends up being a Cinderella service in the NHS.
He said the government would scrap the law saying that MPs detained under the Mental Health Act automatically lose their seats. Campaigners believe that this is discriminatory, because MPs do not have to leave parliament if a physical illness means that they have to take sick leave. Clegg said the law about MPs being disqualified was "an old fashioned approach to mental health that is completely out of step with what we now know".
(Alastair Campbell will be pleased about this. He has been campaigning for thi! s law to be abolished and gave evidence on this subject to the Speaker's conference.)
Clegg said there would be more money to help military veterans with mental illness.
Many people think that soldiers coming back from conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan, they have been so brave and so courageous, I think people think 'Well, surely they are not susceptible to mental health problems'. But often, actually, the toughest battle for them is when they have actually come back from the battlefield in Iraq and Afghanistan.
He denied suggestions that he knocks off work early. This allegation was prompted by a report in the Sunday Telegraph saying that he stops taking paperwork for his ministerial red box at 3pm from Monday to Thursday and at 12pm on Friday.
This is all about, apparently, what my office asks other Whitehall departments - the deadline that they provide papers so that my team can look at these things, provide advice to me, and I usually read these papers at night, usually fairly late at night. This is standard practice across Whitehall. I may have many flaws but not working hard enough - I think even my staunchest critics would not say that.
He said events in Egypt were "incredibly exciting".
It is incredibly exciting what is going on, it reminds me so much of the time when the Berlin Wall fell, the power of the people out on the streets, in a regime which two weeks ago everybody thought was one of the most stable regimes in the region. I don't think it is really for me or anybody else to start dictating exactly when the transition should take place but clearly it is already taking place, and that holds out at least the exciting prospect of real! democra cy and real freedom and openness in Egypt for the first time ever.
8.54am: It will be a busy morning. Nick Clegg has been giving an interview to publicise the government's new mental health strategy - I'll summarise the main points shortly - and there are various other lively items on the agenda. Here's a full list.
9am: Brooke Kinsella, the actor, publishes the report she has compiled for the Home Office on knife crime. She started to campaign on this issue after her brother Ben was stabbed to death.
9.30am: Jack Straw, the former foreign secretary, gives evidence again to the Iraq inquiry. It's the inquiry's last public hearing.
10.30am: Jim Devine, the former Labour MP, is due to go on trial for expenses fraud.
12pm: Prime minister's questions.
I'm just blogging until 1pm today. But until then, as usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web.
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